Preprints (in review)

[41] Hodgson D, Atkins KE, Baguelin M, Panovska-Griffiths J, Fragaszy E, Thorrington D, van Hoek AJ, Hayward A, Pebody R. Quality of life loss for Respiratory Syncytial Virus. bioRxiv link


[40] Davies NG, Flasche S, Jit M, Atkins KE (2018) Within-host dynamics shape the coexistence of antibiotic-sensitive and resistant bacteria. Nature Ecology and Evolution (accepted)

[39] Munday J, van Hoek AJ, Edmunds WJ, Atkins KE (2018) Vaccination drives infectious disease inequality. BMC Medicine (accepted)

[38] Atkins KE, Lipsitch M (2018) Can antibotic resistance be reduced by vaccinating against respiratory disease? Lancet Respiratory Medicine (accepted)

[37] Flasche S, Atkins KE (2018) Balancing benefits and risks of antibiotic use. Journal of Infectious Diseases (accepted)

[36] Camacho A, Bouhenia M, de Radiguès X, Mohammed Naji AM, Abubakar A, Seguin C, Sagrad MJ, Poncin M, McRae M, Musoke M, Al-Mesbahy AR, Rakesh A, Cohuet S, Atkins KE, Eggo RM, Azman A, Broekhuijsen M, Quilici M-L, Olson D, Legros D, Zagaria N, Luquero FJ (2018) Cholera in the time of war: the 2017–8 epidemic in Yemen. Lancet Global Health (accepted)

[35] Rock KS, Ndeffo Mbah M, Castano S, Palmer C, Chitnis N, Pandey A, Atkins KE, Ndung’u JM, Hollingsworth TD, Galvani AP, Bever C, Chitnis N, Keeling MJ (2018) Refining strategies against Gambian sleeping sickness through new application of existing tools: Insights from mathematical modelling. Clinical Infectious Diseases (in press)

[34] Atkins KE, Flasche S (2018) Vaccination to reduce antimicrobial resistance. The Lancet Global Health 6(3):e252 doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30043-3


[33] Atkins KE, Lafferty EI, Deeny SR, Davies NG, Robotham J, Jit M (2017) Using mathematical modelling to evaluate the impact of vaccines on antibiotic resistance: a mechanistic framework and literature review. The Lancet Infectious Diseases (in press)

[32] Coltart CEM, Edmunds WJ, Atkins KE (2017) The 2013–2016 Ebola epidemic: multidisciplinary success conceals a missed opportunity Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 372:20160292

[31] Piot P, Coltart CEM, Atkins KE (2017) Preface to “The 2013-16 Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 372:20170020

[30] Rock KS, Pandey A, Ndeffo Mbah M, Atkins KE, Lumbala C, Galvani AP & Keeling M (2017) Data-driven models to predict the elimination of sleeping sickness in former Equateur province of DRC. Epidemics 18:101-112 doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.006

[29] Hodgson D, Baguelin M, van Leeuwen E, Panovska-Griffiths J, Ramsay M, Pebody R & Atkins KE (2017) Cost-effectiveness analysis of target vaccine groups in the presence of mass paediatric influenza vaccination The Lancet Public Health doi:10.1016/ S2468-2667(16)30044-5 — see commentary by Fisman and Bogoch (2016) The Lancet Public Health doi:10.1016/ S2468-2667(17)30004-X


[28] Thomas SL, Walker JL, Fenty J, Atkins KE, Elliot AJ, Hughes HE, Stowe J, Ladhani S, Andrews NJ (2016) Impact of the national rotavirus vaccination programme on acute gastroenteritis in England Vaccine 35(4):680–686

[27] Yang J*, Atkins KE*, Feng L, (*contributed equally) Pang M, Zheng Y, Liu X, Cowling B, Yu H (2016) Seasonal influenza vaccination in China: landscape of diverse regional reimbursement policy, and budget impact analysis. Vaccine 11;34(47):5724-5735. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.10.013

[26] Li M, Taylor E, Atkins KE, Chapman G & Galvani AP. Stimulating influenza vaccination via prosocial motives (2016) PLoS ONE 11(7): e0159780. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159780

[25] Yamin D, Atkins KE, Remy V & Galvani A (2016) Economic evaluation of mass rotavirus vaccination in France Value in Health 19(6):811-9

[24] Fitzpatrick MC, Wenzel NS, Scarpino SV, Althouse BM, Atkins KE, Galvani AP & Townsend JP (2016) Cost-effectiveness of next-generation vaccines: The case of pertussis Vaccine 34(29):3405-11

[23] Atkins KE*, Pandey A*, (*contributed equally) Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Medlock JP, Wenzel N, Townsend JP, Altice F, Fallah M, Bawo L, Nyenswah TG & Galvani AP (2016) Retrospective Analysis of the 2014–5 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia American Journal for Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 94(4):833-9

[22] Atkins KE*, Fitzpatrick M*, (*contributed equally) Galvani AP, Townsend JP (2016) Cost-effectiveness of pertussis vaccination during pregnancy in the US. American Journal of Epidemiology doi:10.1093/aje/kwv347

[21] Atkins KE, Van Hoek AJ, Watson C, Baguelin M, Raj T, Patel A, Choga L, Jit M, Griffiths U (2016) Seasonal influenza vaccination delivery through community pharmacists in England: evaluation of the London pilot BMJ Open 2016;6:e009739 doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009739


[20] Hollingsworth TD, Adams ER, Anderson RM, Atkins KE, Bartsch S, Basáñez MG, Behrend M, Blok DG, Chapman LAC, Coffeng L, Courtenay O, Crump RE, de Vlas SJ, Dobson A, Dyson L, Farkas H, Galvani AP, Gambhir M, Gurarie D, Irvine MA, Jervis S, Keeling MJ, Kelly-Hope L, King C, Lee BY, Le Rutte EA, Lietman TM, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Medley GF, Michael E, Pandey A, Peterson JK, Pinsent A, Porco TC, Richardus JH, Reimer L, Rock KS, Singh BK, Stolk W, Swaminathan S, Torr SJ, Townsend J, Truscott J, Walker M, Zoueva A and NTD Modelling Consortium (2015) Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases. Parasites & Vectors 8:630 doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1

[19] Pandey A, Atkins KE, Bucheton B, Camara M, Aksoy S, Galvani AP, Ndeffo-Mbah ML (2015) Evaluating long-term effectiveness of sleeping sickness control measures in Guinea. Parasites and Vectors 8 (1), 1-10

[18] Ibuka Y, Ohkusa Y, Sugawara T, Chapman GB, Yamin D, Atkins KE, Taniguchi K, Okabe N, Galvani AP (2015) Social contacts, vaccination decisions and influenza in Japan. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health doi:10.1136/jech-2015-205777

[17] Taylor E, Atkins KE, Medlock J, Li M, Chapman C, Galvani AP (2015) Cross-cultural household influence on vaccination decisions. Medical Decision Making (in press)

[16] Wells CR, Yamin D, Ndeffo Mbah ML, Wenzel N, Gaffney SG, Townsend JP, Meyers LA, Fallah M, Nyenswah T, Altice F, Atkins KE, Galvani AP (2015) Harnessing case isolation and ring vaccination to control Ebola. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (in press)

[15] Atkins KE, Wenzel N, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Altice FL, Townsend JP, & Galvani AP (2015) Under-reporting and Case Fatality Estimates for Emerging Epidemics. BMJ 2015;350:h1115


[14] Pandey A*, Atkins KE*, (*contributed equally) Medlock JP, Wenzel N, Townsend JP, Childs JE, Nyenswah TG, Ndeffo-Mbah ML & Galvani AP (2014) Strategies for Containing Ebola in West Africa Science 21 (346) 6212:991-995 DOI: 10.1126/science.1260612

[13] Talbert-Slagle K, Atkins KE, Yan K-K, Khurana E, Gerstein M, Bradley E, Berg D, Galvani AP & Townsend JP (2014) Cellular superspreaders: an epidemiological view of within-host HIV infection. PLoS Pathogens 10(5): e1004092. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1004092


[12] Atkins KE, Read AF, Savill NJ, Walkden-Brown SW & Woolhouse MEJ (2013) The effectiveness of mass vaccination on Marek’s disease virus (MDV) outbreaks and detection within a broiler barn: a modeling study. Epidemics 5(4):208-17. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2013.10.001

[11] Medlock J, Atkins KE, Thomas D, Aksoy S & Galvani AP (2013) Modeling wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibility as a driver for genes to combat African trypanosomiasis. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 7(8): e2374 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002374

[10] Ndeffo Mbah ML, Poolman E, Atkins KE, Orenstein EW, Meyers LA, Townsend JP & Galvani AP (2013) Cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis treatment for reducing HIV transmission in Africa: case of Zimbabwean women. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 7(8): e2346 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002346

[9] Bocedi G, Atkins KE, Liao J, Henry R, Travis JMJ & Hellmann JJ (2013) Effects of local adaptation and interspecific interactions on species’ responses to climate change. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences (In press)

[8] Atkins KE, Townsend JP, Medlock J & Galvani AP (2013) Epidemiological mechanisms of genetic resistance to kuru. Royal Society Interface 10(85) doi:10.1098/rsif.2013.0331

[7] Ndeffo Mbah ML, Kjetland E, Atkins KE, Poolman E, Orenstein EW, Meyers LA, Townsend JP & Galvani AP (2013) Cost-effectiveness of a community-based intervention for reducing the transmission of Schistosoma haematobium and HIV in Africa. PNAS 110(19):7952-7957 doi:10.1073/pnas.1221396110

[6] Atkins KE, Read AF, Savill NJ, Renz KG, Islam AFMF, Walkden-Brown SW & Woolhouse MEJ (2013) Vaccination and Reduced Cohort Duration Can Drive Virulence Evolution: Marek’s Disease Virus and Industrialized Agriculture. Evolution 67(3):851-860. doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646.2012.01803.x


[5] Atkins KE, Shim E, Carroll S, Quilici S & Galvani AP (2012) The Cost-Effectiveness of Pentavalent Rotavirus Vaccination in England and Wales. Vaccine 30(48):6766–6776

[4] Pitzer VE, Atkins KE*, Freiesleben de Blasio B*, Van Effelterre T*,(*contributed equally) Atchison CJ, Harris JP, Shim E, Galvani AP, Edmunds WJ, Viboud C, Patel MM, Grenfell BT, Parashar U & Lopman BA (2012) Direct and Indirect Effects of Rotavirus Vaccination: Comparing Predictions from Transmission Dynamic Models PLoS ONE 7(8): e42320. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0042320

[3] Atkins KE, Shim E, Pitzer VE & Galvani AP (2012) Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination on Epidemiological Dynamics in England and Wales. Vaccine 30:552-564. DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine2011.11.064


[2] Atkins KE, Read AF, Walkden-Brown SW, Savill NJ, Renz KM & Woolhouse MEJ (2011) Modelling Marek’s Disease Virus (MDV) Infection: Parameter Estimates For Mortality Rate And Infectiousness. BMC Veterinary Research 7(1):70. DOI:10.1186/1746-6148-7-70


[1] Atkins KE and Travis JMJ (2010) Local adaptation and the evolution of species’ ranges under climate change. Journal of Theoretical Biology 266(3): 449-457. DOI:10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.07.014